Time Running Out for Taiwan if Russia Releases S-400 SAM


TAIPEI — Taiwan faces tough choices over future defense decisions as China’s air defense network continues to grow beyond its shores.

At present, China’s land-based mobile air defense missile systems, HQ-9 and S-300, can reach only a small sliver of northwestern Taiwan. Though a clear advantage during a war over control of the middle line of the Taiwan Strait, it is not complete air dominance of the island itself.

However, with the planned purchase of the 400-kilometer-range Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, China will for the first time have complete air defense coverage of Taiwan.

Ongoing negotiations with the Chinese on S-400 were confirmed by Russian officials last year, said Vasily Kashin, a researcher with Moscow’s Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

“This may be one reason that Taiwan is no longer pushing hard for fourth-generation F-16 replacements,” said Ian Easton, China military specialist at the Project 2049 Institute. Taiwan knows that by 2023, it will need F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. If the US refuses to sell them to Taiwan, as it did with the F-16C/Ds, Taiwan’s “only other option is to engage in a sharp ramp-up of cruise missile production and deploy ballistic missiles as well.”

Taiwan does have other options that include improving its electronic warfare capabilities, he said. “Also, it’s important to remember that Taiwan’s territory extends right up to the Chinese coast. Taiwan has missile, rocket and other weapons systems capable of engaging SAM networks from the Dongyin, Matzu and Kinmen island groups right off the coast of Fujian province.”

Taiwan’s military could use these islands as staging grounds for the insertion of special operations forces, Easton said. These forces include the 101 Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion (“Army Frogmen”), Airborne Special Service Company and Special Forces Command, which consists of the 862 and 871 Airborne Groups. The Taiwan Marine Corps has the Amphibious Reconnaissance Patrol.

“As such, if the Chinese move the S-400s too close to the coast, they are going to be in peril,” he said.

“Militarily, the deployment of S-300 PMU2 at the opposite side of the strait already puts considerable stress on Taiwan fighter pilots, and now with introduction of the more modernized S-400 SAM, which sooner or later would follow the S-300 PMU2 pattern of deployment in Fujian province,” will make the situation even worse for Taiwan fighter pilots, said York Chen, a former member of Taiwan’s National Security Council.

“When S-400s work together with Chinese land- and sea-based fighters, the Chinese will have more confidence in sustaining airspace dominance over the Taiwan theater, thus depriving any organized resistance by the Taiwan Air Force and deterring the American intervention,” Chen said. It is time the US seriously rethinks Taiwan’s export request for the AGM-88 high-speed anti-radiation missile for its F-16s, he said.

A sale of the S-400 could go forward in 2017 at the earliest, but so far, there has been no news on any results, or about a memorandum of understanding signing, Kashin said. It is also unclear how many systems the Chinese want to buy.

“The key issue is that S-400 producer Almaz-Antey is overloaded with orders from the Russian military and some foreign customers,” Kashin said. “In the past, Russian officials have said that the SAMs’ delivery can take place only after Almaz-Antey fulfills the main contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, sometime after 2017. Even if there is fast progress in negotiations, and the Russians agree to revise the 2017 deadline, the delivery will take some time because of production capacity shortages at Almaz-Antey.”

The S-400 has implications not just for Taiwan, but also for India, Japan and the US.

Recognizing that future wars will be missile-centric, China’s potential acquisition of S-400 SAMs would represent an important move because these systems allow for ballistic-missile defense capabilities that it lacks, Easton said. “For this reason, it could lead to an arms race with India, which relies upon ballistic missiles to deter China.”

The S-400 also will cover the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which China also claims as the Diaoyu Islands.

For the US, the implications are less serious, Easton said. “We designed F-22s and F-35s with these types of air defense challengers in mind.”

Nonetheless, air superiority is eroding in the western Pacific due to a lack of hardened air bases on Okinawa, he said. “When you combine soft US air bases with hard Chinese air defense systems, the picture doesn’t look good.”

More broadly, assuming trends continue, the future air defense environment is going to be highly conducive to drone warfare, Easton said, noting the recent test flight of the X-47B unmanned combat aerial system concept demonstrator May 14 off the US aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush.

“Why send manned aircraft into threat environments so high that even elite pilots refer to their missions as one-way trips? And why spend the extra money and reduce endurance and payloads when you can pilot aerial vehicles remotely or allow them to run semi-autonomously for far greater effect?” Easton said.

Defense News

Comments

  1. Awesome! Its in fact remarkable paragraph, I have got much
    clear idea about from this article.

    Also visit my weblog; Authentic green coffee

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hello, i think that i saw you visited my blog so i
    came to “return the favor”.I am attempting to find things to enhance my
    web site!I suppose its ok to use a few of your ideas!
    !

    Check out my blog - Lift and Glow Pro And Lift Serum Pro

    ReplyDelete
  3. You should take part in a contest for one of the finest sites on the net.
    I will recommend this web site!

    My web site: Ultra Celeb Diet

    ReplyDelete
  4. Amazing! This blog looks just like my old one! It's on a totally different topic but it has pretty much the same page layout and design. Great choice of colors!

    Feel free to surf to my weblog: Saffron Extracts

    ReplyDelete
  5. Have you ever thought about creating an ebook or guest authoring on other blogs?
    I have a blog based upon on the same information you discuss
    and would love to have you share some stories/information.
    I know my subscribers would enjoy your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free
    to shoot me an e-mail.

    my blog post Xength X1 Male Enhancement

    ReplyDelete
  6. What's up to all, how is the whole thing, I think every one is getting more from this site, and your views are good for new users.

    my page :: Muscle Core X

    ReplyDelete
  7. It's awesome in support of me to have a web page, which is useful for my know-how. thanks admin

    my site; raspberry ketones

    ReplyDelete
  8. This piece of writing is actually a good
    one it assists new net people, who are wishing in favor of blogging.


    my webpage - Revolyn

    ReplyDelete
  9. Howdy, I do believe your web site may be having web browser compatibility problems.
    When I take a look at your web site in Safari, it looks fine however, when opening in IE, it has some overlapping issues.
    I merely wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other than that, fantastic website!


    Here is my website working online from home

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi, i think that i saw you visited my blog thus i came to “return
    the favor”.I am trying to find things to improve my website!

    I suppose its ok to use some of your ideas!!

    Review my blog post Buy Acai Ultra Lean

    ReplyDelete
  11. Excellent post. I was checking constantly this blog and I'm impressed! Extremely useful info specially the last part :) I care for such information much. I was seeking this certain information for a very long time. Thank you and best of luck.

    Here is my web page :: raspberry ketone burn

    ReplyDelete
  12. I do not know if it's just me or if perhaps everyone else experiencing issues with your blog. It appears as though some of the written text within your posts are running off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them too? This could be a issue with my web browser because I've had this happen before.
    Appreciate it

    work from home

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your reminder. We're testing on different browsers and will fix this problem

      Delete
  13. Great post. I am facing a few of these issues as well..

    raspberry ketone reviews

    ReplyDelete
  14. Marvelous, what a weblog it is! This weblog provides valuable
    facts to us, keep it up.

    Also visit my site :: what is garcinia cambogia

    ReplyDelete
  15. It's actually a great and useful piece of information. I am glad that you just shared this useful info with us. Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.



    optimal stack review

    ReplyDelete
  16. Do you have any video of that? I'd care to find out some additional information.

    My web-site ... NaturaCleanse Diets

    ReplyDelete
  17. Hello just wanted to give you a brief heads up and
    let you know a few of the pictures aren't loading properly. I'm
    not sure why but I think its a linking issue.
    I've tried it in two different internet browsers and both show the same results.

    Visit my web page :: Muscle Factor X REview

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hi there! I understand this is kind of off-topic however I needed to ask.
    Does operating a well-established blog such as yours take a massive amount work?
    I'm brand new to blogging but I do write in my diary every day. I'd like to
    start a blog so I will be able to share my personal experience
    and feelings online. Please let me know if you have any kind of recommendations or tips for brand new aspiring bloggers.
    Appreciate it!

    My web site ... Buy Elevate GF

    ReplyDelete
  19. I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design
    this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you?
    Plz respond as I'm looking to design my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. thanks a lot

    my blog ... N/A

    ReplyDelete
  20. Your style is so unique compared to other people I have read stuff
    from. Thanks for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess
    I'll just book mark this site.

    Also visit my web-site Muscle BUilding Supplement

    ReplyDelete
  21. I visited several websites but the audio feature for audio songs
    existing at this site is in fact wonderful.

    Here is my web page Automated pay days reviews

    ReplyDelete
  22. Really no matter if someone doesn't know then its up to other people that they will help, so here it happens.

    Also visit my web site :: Power Preciision

    ReplyDelete
  23. That is very fascinating, You're an overly professional blogger. I have joined your feed and stay up for in quest of more of your great post. Also, I've shared your site in my social networks

    Here is my web-site; Le Parfait

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hmm it appears like your site ate my first comment (it was extremely long) so I guess I'll just sum it up what I had written and say, I'm
    thoroughly enjoying your blog. I too am an aspiring blog writer but I'm still new to everything. Do you have any tips for newbie blog writers? I'd certainly
    appreciate it.

    Feel free to visit my web page; Ultra Slim Patch Safe

    ReplyDelete
  25. Thank you for the very helpful article, hopefully it will be more successful and beneficial for everyone

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment